The bull market peak on the Dow was 11,720 in January 2000. For the S&P 500 the peak was 1,527 in March 2000. For the NASDAQ composite, it was 5,048 in March 2000. As of Friday, the Dow lies at 7,908 (off 32%), the S&P is 834 (off 45%), and the NASDAQ is 1,310 (off a whopping 74%).

Certainly we're in a bear market. If you dabbled in high-flying NASDAQ stocks back in the late 90s you've probably taken a real bath. The question now is: when do we reach bottom, or is there any hope of a revival in the averages?

The bullish argument:

• Interest rates are low, the lowest in decades, which is good for business because it makes it easy to borrow and reduces the payment burden of debt.
• Fiscal policy is stimulative, i.e. the federal government is running a big deficit, which according to Keynesian theory will stimulate the economy because the government is generating all this demand.
• Stock prices have come down to more reasonable levels, and unemployment has risen. Thus, there is some room for higher prices and a rise in production.

The bearish argument:

• Prices are still high. A long-term average price-earnings ratio is 15, but the averages are at nearly 30.
• The momentum is down, down, down. Check out the above chart of the NASDAQ composite.
• The mood is fearful. The market is worried about a war in Iraq. IPOs have virtually dried up. Everyone is hunkering down and waiting out the storm.

So, as always, it's unclear, but there's not much sign of an end to the bear market yet.